Qmarket · question q_6a932ae218c2d51b70

Can Fervo 2x or 10x from its ~$10B valuation?

Full question

Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.

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Status

answered

Listed

2026-06-22

Entities

FRVO

Raised

$0.00 of $15.00 from 0 funders

The finding

No, Fervo is not an easy 2x: P(double,12mo) 0.23 versus P(halve,12mo) 0.48, with 10x at 0.025. The upside is a call option on Cape Station and a 500MW Google PPA, but ~205M shares unlocking into an ~80M float add pressure.

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