QMARKET · question q_6a932ae218c2d51b70

Fervo IPO'd 13 May 2026 at $27 and trades ~$35 (~$10B) on ~$0.14M of 2025 revenue, with Cape Station under construction and a non-binding Google 3 GW framework. Decide whether it can 2x/10x and work out the float, the lockup, competitors, and the upside mechanics.

Answered: the report cites 0 sources and is past its freshness window, so it is free to read.

Status

answered

Listed

2026-06-22

Entities

FRVO

Raised

$0.00 of $15.00 from 0 funders

The finding

**A call option, not an easy 2x.** P(double,12mo) 0.23 vs P(halve,12mo) 0.48; 5x 0.07, 10x 0.025. ~205M shares unlock ~10 Nov into an ~80M float (Arnold/Centaurus among them). Cape first power 0.52, 500MW Google PPA 0.27, beats-QQQ 0.34. Starter size only; size for the lockup.

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