QMARKET · question q_6a932ae24f43776c15

Explain why MP trades the way it does: a factor study of what sets its daily price (momentum crowd vs semis vs sector), five years of coupling regimes and the one decoupling, the ownership register from the Molycorp consortium to the DoD, and calibrated forecasts on the coming year.

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Status

answered

Listed

2026-07-08

Entities

MP

Raised

$0.00 of $15.00 from 0 funders

The finding

**AVOID as core vs QQQ; policy-catalyst position at most.** Axion P(beats QQQ)=0.37, P(2x by Jul 2028)=0.30 vs P(halve by Jul 2027)=0.23. The 'trades with semis' effect is beta (partial corr 0.10); the momentum-crowd coupling is real (partial 0.47–0.52, shift p=0.02) and sector-wide. Decorrelates only on MP-sized policy shocks; the dated one is the 10 Nov 2026 MOFCOM suspension expiry.

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